Thanks as always to The Daley Gator, Pirate’s Cove, The Other McCain, Flappr and Bacon Time for the Rule Five links! As always, if I’ve missed your link, let me know in the comments and I’ll add you to the Monday acknowledgment.
It’s a long way until the 2024 election, but damned if things aren’t starting to get interesting. President Biden(‘s handlers) prospects are looking pretty bleak.
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 19 points underwater, his ratings for handling the economy and immigration are at career lows. A record number of Americans say they’ve become worse off under his presidency, three-quarters say he’s too old for another term and Donald Trump is looking better in retrospect — all severe challenges for Biden in his reelection campaign ahead.
Forty-four percent of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say they’ve gotten worse off financially under Biden’s presidency, the most for any president in ABC/Post polls since 1986. Just 37% approve of his job performance, while 56% disapprove. Still fewer approve of Biden’s performance on the economy, 30%.
President Trump, currently in the middle of trying to pull off a Grover Cleveland and become the second President to serve two non-consecutive terms, is looking better – at least by comparison.
Trump, for his part, has improved in retrospect. When he reluctantly left office in January 2021, 38% approved of his work as president, essentially the same as Biden’s rating now. But currently, looking back, 48% say they approve of Trump’s performance when he was in office — matching his peak as president. Essentially as many — 49% — now disapprove, down from 60% when he left the White House.
Comparison with Biden may be a factor. Among the 56% of Americans who disapprove of Biden’s work in office, a wide 75% say that, looking back, they approve of Trump.
Head-to-head in a hypothetical November 2024 matchup, Trump has 51% support while Biden has 42% — numerically up 3 points for Trump and down 2 points for Biden from an ABC/Post poll in February, shifts that are not statistically significant.
There’s even less change from the most recent ABC/Post poll in May, which had the race at 49-42% (again with a different, but comparable, question wording). Still, with Trump inching over 50% — and other polls showing a closer contest — a close look is warranted.
Before anyone gets too worked up over this one set of poll data, keep a couple of things in mind: 1) President Biden is likely to not be the Democrat’s candidate. His physical and mental deterioration seems to be accelerating there are a number of prominent Democrats who have expressed doubts about his ability; also, he is facing an increasingly-serious primary challenge from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
As for the Republican side, there’s a big primary field, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been hitting the trail hard, and not one primary election vote has yet been cast.
Still – if national Democrats aren’t worried, they should be.