Category Archives: Totty

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Rule Five Friday

2014_05_30_Rule Five Friday (1)It seems recession has returned.  Two items on that tidbit:

From CNBC:  Frigid winter takes toll as US GDP contracts for first time in 3 years.

Bloomberg is a tad more optimistic, but not much:  U.S. Economy Shrinks for First Time Since 2011; Pent Demand Suggests Temporary Setback.

Key excerpt from CNBC:

The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time in three years as it buckled under the weight of a severe winter, but there are signs activity has since rebounded.

2014_05_30_Rule Five Friday (4)The Commerce Department on Thursday revised down its growth estimate to show gross domestic product shrinking at a 1.0 annual rate.

It was the worst performance since the first quarter of 2011 and reflected a far slower pace of inventory accumulation and a bigger than previously estimated trade deficit.

Bloomberg agrees:

A pickup in receipts at retailers, stronger manufacturing and faster job growth indicate the first-quarter setback will prove temporary as pent-up demand is unleashed. Federal Reserve policy makers said at their April meeting that the economy has strengthened after adverse weather took its toll.

2014_05_30_Rule Five Friday (5)“The good news is that the first quarter is over, it was a difficult one for the U.S. economy,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “I wouldn’t worry too much about the decline, it’s mostly driven by less construction spending and less inventory accumulation. This quarter should be a good one.”

Oddly enough, in 2012 I remember being told that if I voted for Mitt Romney, that unemployment would stay above 5% and economic growth would go in the crapper.  And look – they were right!

I think both articles may have one good point; the bad winter did hurt retail movement, and there may be some rebound now that spring has well and truly sprung and people are moving about more.  But that’s not a major move, and the economy remains in an anemic growth cycle; really anemic if you remember the Roaring Eighties.

2014_05_30_Rule Five Friday (3)And we may be in for a major market move, too.  Excerpt:

Of these (indicators), the most important will likely be the first-quarter GDP due on Thursday. The last estimate was for growth of 0.1%, while expectations for the revision are a -0.6% decline in growth for the first quarter. A decline here would be an unwelcome development, as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP is the official definition of recession. While this will probably be blamed on bad winter weather, a slip into recession could easily trigger the next “Minksy moment” and escalate market volatility. I remain cautious as we enter the lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer.

Could that presage a crash?  It’s hard to tell, but the Fed can’t keep pumping cheap money in to the economy forever – and when they stop, a major adjustment is inevitable.  See Stein’s Law.

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Rule Five Friday

2014_05_23_Rule Five Friday (1)From the land of the calamitously stupid comes this gem:  Dem Congressman: ‘We’ve Proved That Communism Works’  Uh huh.  Money quote:

“Let me give you an example, the kind of money we’ve poured in,” he said. “So the most dangerous — sorry, the safest city in America is El Paso, Texas. It happens to be across the border from the most dangerous city in the Americas, which is Juarez. Right?”

2014_05_23_Rule Five Friday (2)“And two of the safest cities in America, two of them are on the border with Mexico,” Garcia continued. “And of course, the reason is we’ve proved that Communism works. If you give everybody a good government job, there’s no crime.”

“But that isn’t what we should be doing on the border,” he continued. “The kind of money we’ve poured into it, and we’re having diminishing returns.”

The first words that come to mind are “what a moron.”

2014_05_23_Rule Five Friday (3)And seriously – to ensure prosperity, all we have to do is “give everybody a good government job?”  What Wesley Mouch Joe Garcia apparently fails to realize is this:  The government doesn’t have any damn money.  Government, at all  levels, can only spend money it has taken – with the threat of force (try not paying your taxes and see how long it takes before men with guns come looking for you) from the productive.

And Communism?  The legacy of Communism is not prosperity – it never has been and never will be.  The legacy of Communism is misery, poverty, and mass murder.  The legacy of Communism is bread lines, baggy, ill-cut, cheap clothing; it is Stalin’s purges and 2014_05_23_Rule Five Friday (4)Mao’s Great Leap Forward, both episodes that caused the deaths of millions.

And this jackass wants to emulate that?  Here?

I’m no wild-eyed conspiracy theorist or survivalist kook, but an attempt – a serious attempt – to implement Communism here would be enough to drive me to arms.

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Rule Five Friday

2014_05_16_Rule Five Friday (1)Let’s talk about energy, as though you might need an additional boost to go along with the refueling aspect of the Rule Five Friday totty.  The young lady pictured here has no connection to the story and to our knowledge is not connected with the energy industry in any way; her appearance here is purely gratuitous.

But who does have a connection to the energy industry in the U.S. today?  Harold Hamm does, and Forbes has his story.  Excerpt:

Two Scotches in, with seats on the floor of Oklahoma City’s Chesapeake Energy CHK -2.7% Arena, Harold Hamm is feeling good. And why not? His hometown Thunder is spending the evening whupping the Philadelphia 76ers. Earlier Hamm announced big bonuses for 2014_05_16_Rule Five Friday (2)Continental Resources CLR +0.04% employees, courtesy of record oil production. And a judge’s ruling, revealed that morning, in Hamm’s divorce case suggested the energy tycoon would keep the Continental shares he already owned when he married soon-to-be-ex Sue Ann Hamm 26 years ago. With that chunk of stock, encompassing about $16 billion out of his $16.9 billion fortune, Hamm owns 70% of Continental.

As every wildcatter knows, such is life in the oil patch when you’re on a hot streak. And Hamm’s on perhaps the most epic one in domestic energy history, perhaps save for John D. Rockefeller’s. No one, aside from kings, dictators and post-Soviet kleptocrats, personally owns more black gold–Continental has proved reserves of 1 billion barrels, mostly locked underneath North Dakota. Hamm took the company public in 2007–and shares are up 600% since, as the revolution in horizontal drilling has given America a cheap energy 2014_05_16_Rule Five Friday (3)booster shot, fueling factories, keeping a lid on gas prices and adding millions of jobs.

Of course, there are many more barrels locked up under public lands, where our supposed employees in the Imperial City refuse to allow drilling.  But that’s another story.

Hamm seems a character straight out of an Ayn Rand novel; driven, innovative, passionate about his line of work.  He started in the industry at the age of 16, pumping gas in a service station; now he controls more oil than anyone outside of the Middle East.  A pioneer of horizontal drilling, he now has realized a net worth of $16.9 billion- and he’s earned every penny of it.

Why is a man like this not held up as a national hero?  A man to be admired and emulated?  Because he had a single-minded drive to 2014_05_16_Rule Five Friday (4)success?  Because he succeeded on his own merits, realized the rewards of hard work and enormous risks?

The Forbes article concludes:

Hubris–almost inevitable when you own 70% of a company–is also a concern. America’s richest oil baron has been catching flak recently for what appears to be self-dealing, including a $340 million purchase by Continental of another North Dakota oil company he co-owned and a five-year, $100 million contract Continental signed with a pipeline firm owned by Hamm and his family. (Hamm says both deals passed muster with the board and will boost Continental’s performance.)

But such headaches will prove ephemeral if Hamm wins his bet and delivers on his promise of unlimited oil and gas. Such results would surely make Hamm one of the 20 richest people in the world. And just as surely 2014_05_16_Rule Five Friday (5)reshape America in the process.

And he will probably be reviled for greed, instead of admired as a uniquely American success story.  Why?

Who is John Galt?

Hamm’s work has the potential to completely reshape the American economy for the better.  He has created thousands, maybe tens of thousands of jobs directly and indirectly.  He has made energy in the form of everything from gasoline to heating oil more abundant and therefore cheaper.  He’s a man worthy of admiration.

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Rule Five Friday

2014_05_09_Rule Five Friday (1)Well, it was bound to happen:  Florida Man Demands Right to Marry Computer.  Excerpt:

Chris Sevier, a man from Florida, believes he should be allowed to wed his Macbook.

Mr Sevier argues that if gays should be allowed to marry, then so should other sexual minorities.

Mr Sevier states he has fallen in love with a pornography laden computer.

2014_05_09_Rule Five Friday (2)“Over time, I began preferring sex with my computer over sex with real women,” he told a court in Florida.

This appears to be not a passing holiday romance, but a lifelong commitment.

If gays have the right to “marry their object of sexual desire, even if they lack corresponding sexual parts, then I should have the right to marry my preferred sexual object”, he said.

Well then.

I’ve made my stance on social issues (including marriage) very plain in the past, and will do so again here:  I don’t give a damn what people do, as long as they leave me alone.  With that said, I am of the considered opinion – considered again after reading about the nutbar Chris Sevier – that marriage, to avoid becoming a complete farce, should be limited to consenting human adults.

2014_05_09_Rule Five Friday (3)No matter how societal attitudes towards marriage have changed, it is still universally seen as a statement of deep commitment, entered into freely and willingly (at least in Western countries) by consenting, competent adults.  It’s not, as Mr. Sevier so fatuously complains, just an attachment “to their object of sexual desire.”

So is it “intolerant” to think that it’s appropriate to keep it within the species?

Actually, I suspect Mr. Sevier is attempting some sort of a stunt.   What point he is trying to make escapes us for the moment, but this 2014_05_09_Rule Five Friday (4)doesn’t appear to be a serious person with a serious issue.

On the other end of the tolerance spectrum we have our “allies,” the Saudis; in the Kingdom the founder of a “Saudi Liberals” web site has been sentenced to 10 years in jail, a thousand lashes and fined one million riyals.  Why?  Read for yourself:

His website included articles that were critical of senior religious figures such as Saudi Arabia’s Grand Mufti, according to Human Rights Watch.

2014_05_09_Rule Five Friday (5)Mind you this is country that does not permit women to vote, drive, or leave their homes without a male relative as an escort.  Raif Badawi, the webmaster in question, originally also faced charges of apostasy – a crime that carries the death penalty in the Kingdom.

Civilized people do not conduct the business of state in this manner; but then, civilization has always been in short supply in this part of the world, at least for the last thousand years or so.

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Rule Five Friday

2014_05_02_Rule Five Friday (1)Is Skynet Inevitable?  Excerpt:

In the latest Spike Jonze movie, Her, an operating system called Samantha evolves into an enchanting, self-directed intelligence with a will of her own. Samantha makes choices that do not harm humanity, though they do leave viewers feeling a bit sadder.

In his terrific new book, Our Final Invention, documentarian James Barrat argues that visions of an essentially benign artificial general intelligence (AGI) like Samantha amount to silly pipe dreams. Barrat believes artificial intelligence is coming, but he thinks it will be more like Skynet.

2014_05_02_Rule Five Friday (2)In the Terminator movies, Skynet is an automated defense system that becomes self-aware, decides that human beings are a danger to it, and seeks to destroy us with nuclear weapons and terminator robots. Barrat doesn’t just think that Skynet is likely. He thinks it’s practically inevitable.

Is it really inevitable?

At present we are in the midst of mankind’s third great cultural revolution.   The Agricultural Revolution made it possible for people to produce more than they consumed; it made possible trade, a 2014_05_02_Rule Five Friday (3)division of labor, the birth of villages, towns, cities.

Later, the Industrial Revolution gave us mass production, factories, consumer goods; it gave us railroads, automobiles, aircraft, travel, and leisure time.  It gave us the first modern standard of living.

Now, we find ourselves in the Information Revolution, and it will be as world-changing as the first two – it already has been, even now, in its infancy.  Who is to know what the next hundred years will bring?

Reason.com concludes:

Barrat concludes with no grand proposals for regulating or banning the development of artificial intelligence. Rather he offers his book as “a heartfelt invitation to join the most important conversation humanity can have.” His thoughtful case about the dangers of ASI gives even the 2014_05_02_Rule Five Friday (4)most cheerful technological optimist much to think about.

Much to think about – but predictions are notoriously hard to make, especially when they’re about the future.  AI may prove difficult to produce, and fickle when it’s realized – or it may be as predictable and reliable as the rising sun, and as gentle as the morning rain.  We can’t know, and won’t – until it happens.

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