It seems the bottom has dropped out of the hydrogen-car market. This should, of course, come as a surprise to no one. MasterResource’s Robert Bradley Jr. has the details:
EVs compete against hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles–at least in California where some one hundred hydrogen dispensing stations are. The range and fill-time of HFCVs is quite competitive with EVs. But it is downhill from there–and a major mess for sellers and buyers. The California Energy Commission (remember Methanol?) has failed again.
Consultant James Carter on LinkedIn summarized a recent article in Jalopnik, by Logan Carter, Toyota Offers $40,000 Discount On A Car Most People Can’t Fuel Up.” His autopsy (verbatim):
Toyota’s innovative Mirai might just be the best deal on the car market right now, but access to hydrogen fuel is getting harder.
- Even with ~$60,000 in total discounts, Mirai is still a BAD deal.
- “The $40,000 cash incentive deal is limited to 2023 model year Mirai Limited models, and includes zero percent financing for qualifying buyers. All new Mirais include $15,000 in complimentary fuel at the time of sale.”
- I’ve been around automotive for a long time, but I’ve NEVER seen incentives that represent 90% of new vehicle price. For a Toyota, 10% is the most I’ve seen. Yet, this is exactly what’s happening for the Toyota Mirai.
The incentives – taxpayer money, in most cases – are there because nobody would look twice at these cars without them. Free markets are a great thing, but when it comes to these green boondoggles, of
which hydrogen cars are but one example, the market is anything but free.
But wait! There’s more! Here are the details of the costs of operation:
Vehicle: $66,000, less $40,000 discount
Finance: $6,500 interest, less $6,500 discount
Fuel for 5 years /15,000 miles annually: $45,000, less $15,000
So, in total, this car will cost you $56,000 over 5 years, which is roughly the same as a Model Y Performance mostly charged from home. Perhaps add $5k for interest payments for the Y.
Here’s the rub: At the end of 5 years, that Model Y will be worth about $25,000. The Mirai? Likely $2,000 to $3,000, based on history. In other words, that hugely discounted Mirai is still a BAD DEAL.
Why is it still bad? Because the only Hydrogen stations are in California, and all suffer very irregular supply. In other words, there’s no guarantee you’ll get fuel when you need it. Which, unfortunately, is rule #1….
The reason to have a private auto is so that it will be available when you need to use it, and so that you can go where you need to go. In this, the various hydrogen autos fall short. Not only are they prohibitively expensive without subsidies, they don’t age well.
What’s not mentioned here is the production of hydrogen: That takes electricity, and plenty of it, and sufficient power won’t be
supplied by windmills and solar panels; meanwhile, the same people pushing these green boondoggles are opposing nuclear power.
Granted, new technology always gets cheaper and more efficient over time. But this seems like a stretch, to try to lay in an entirely new infrastructure when we already have an established infrastructure, mature and efficient, that delivers gasoline and Diesel fuel when and where we need it.
Maybe someday there will be an unsubsidized market for hydrogen-powered vehicles. But that day is not today, and it won’t be tomorrow.