Today’s the day, True Believers. Today – we hope – we’ll find out just how fucked we are for the net two years. I say two, not four, because in two years we’ll have Congressional elections, and those can have as much if not more impact than Presidential elections.
But, yeah. If we see a blue sweep today, my official prediction is that the Dems will make damn sure they never have to surrender power again. They have a model – California – they are after power, and they mean to get it and to keep it.
The polling has been all over the place, but most of it showing the President running behind. Color me skeptical. Some of the most recent polls show the President opening up a lead, and if true, tonight could be very, very interesting.
The gold standard cited by so much of the legacy media and a lot of the new media, is the RealClearPolitics average, and in that Trump has been making up some ground but is still trailing in the swing states.
But the 2016 polls showed much the same.
And the one thing from the most preliminary of preliminary returns are showing may well be misleading, that being the number of ballots returned from registered Democrats vs. registered Republicans; people on both sides touting those numbers are all operating on the assumption that those people are casting votes in alignment with their party of registration. That’s not necessarily so; I suspect there will be a fair amount of registered Democrats voting Trump (I personally know of several) and, to be fair, there will probably be some crossing the other way as well, although I think the former will far outweigh the latter.
RealClearPolitics, by the way, has started blocking you from viewing the page unless you disable your ad-blocker. That pisses me off, and, while RCP is a pretty good news aggregate site and have every right to support their site by running ads, they do have too many auto-play video ads to suit me, which is why I run the ad-blocker in the first place. Those things are annoying as hell.
But, I digress.
Here’s my final prediction: Based on the most recent polling I’ve seen, it’s going to be a squeaker. The most likely scenario I see has Trump winning about 279 EC votes, unless the fraud machine in PA can flip that state to Biden.
Watch Florida. If Trump wins Florida, he’s on his way to a win. If he loses Florida, his path to re-election gets a whole, whole lot tougher.
We’re in the end-game now, folks. Hang tough.