Image:  Underwater and swimming hard.

Matters in Egypt may be getting worse; a 1979 Iran-type outcome may be the result.  Have a read; Egypt: Three Possible Outcomes. Excerpt:

But what do Egyptians really think? According to a recent Pew poll, they are extremely radical even in comparison to Jordan or Lebanon. When asked whether they preferred “Islamists” or “modernizers,” the score was 59% to 27% in favor of the Islamists. In addition, 20 percent said they liked al-Qaeda; 30 percent, Hezbollah; 49 percent, Hamas. And this was at a time that their government daily propagandized against these groups.

How about religious views? Egyptian Muslims said the following: 82 percent want adulterers punished with stoning; 77 percent want robbers to be whipped and have their hands amputated; 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.

In a democracy, of course, these views are going to be expressed by how people vote. Even if Egypt does not have an Islamist government, it might well end up with a radical regime that caters to these attitudes and incites violence abroad.

There are reasons not to expect Egypt to turn into a moderate, stable, and democratic state: There are few forces favoring this outcome; the rebellion has no organization; Egypt doesn’t have the resources to raise living standards and distribute wealth; extremist ideologies are deeply held and widely spread.

Signs this morning are not good.  Protesters have seized the city center in Cairo; the military forces are now standing back, at least in places, and letting the riots proceed.   Oh, sure, there have been some token shows of force, but at least four jails were attacked in spite of it.

The Official Animal Prediction:  Nothing good will come of this.