Democrats’ predictions of a blue wave this November are declining still further with the latest polls. Excerpt:
The numbers clearly favor the GOP. If, for example, the Democrats pick up BOTH toss-up races in Arizona and Nevada, the Republicans need to win just one of the other six competitive races to keep the Senate at a 50-50 tie. With Vice President Mike Pence empowered to cast the deciding vote, the GOP would remain in control.
At this moment in time, however, it seems like the Republicans should expect to do much better than a mere 50-50 tie in the Senate. There is certainly a chance they could win at least one of the toss-up Senate races in either Arizona or Nevada (especially if Martha McSally wins the Republican nomination in Arizona).
Beyond that, Democrats Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly face uphill battles in Missouri and Indiana. It’s very easy to imagine the R’s picking up at least one of those seats. Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is probably a slight underdog in her North Dakota re-election bid. In West Virginia, Joe Manchin’s personal popularity may be enough to overcome the fact that President Trump carried the state by 42 points — but it will probably be very close. And, as always, Florida remains a pure toss-up.
Add it all up, and the Democrats need to pull an inside straight to avoid losing seats in the Senate this November.
My take on this runs along two lines:
- It’s waaaaaayyyy too early for the GOP to be mustering up any confidence here. They still need to work their asses off to overcome a long-standing historical trend of the party in power losing seats. But it looks like it’s do-able.
- No matter what happens, we’ll have a statist, big-government party in charge. The Republicans will destroy our liberties and spend us into insolvency a little slower than the Democrats, I suppose. That’s not anything to crow about.
I suppose I’ll still hope for the GOP to hold control. The insanity seems to be a little more toned down for the moment; and besides, the RRHHEEEEE from the pontificating Left is really entertaining.